Statistika For Life: 23 new messages in 18 topics

sci.stat.math
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math?hl=en

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Today's topics:

==============================================================================
TOPIC: MI5 Persecution: Ravenscourt Park 20/3/99 (5432)
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/269ff1e9d798364d?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Fri, Nov 16 2007 9:28 pm
From: MI5Victim@mi5.gov.uk

Ravenscourt Park 20/3/99

Certainty level: 70%

On Saturday I went to Hammersmith, specifically Ravenscourt Park. There
had recently been a resurgence of persecution activity, following the
Capital spams. I went to the cafe in the park and had a cup of coffee
outside, with my mother. As I went inside the cafe to return the cups,
a woman shouted a sexual obscenity (not present on this audio file -
don't ask), and she said loudly "something's wrong with him". You can just
about hear it in the audio file; listen very carefully, several times; it
is distinguishable.

Much less subtle is the male voice shouting "take care he's a nutter"
immediately after the woman's voice. As on the other recordings there's
a lot of noise, but what the people say can be clearly heard.

Given that I take medication and look and behave quite sanely, and that
there had been increased abuse over the last couple of weeks, it seems
pretty unlikely that this incident was just spontaneous.... of course,
you couldn't prove otherwise, but then that's the way MI5 mean their
abuse to look.

5432

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==============================================================================
TOPIC: Training/Projects on Bioinformatics, Biotechnology and SAS Programming
at Global Institute of Biotechnology
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/2b21a3aef5aab678?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 2:34 am
From: Global Institute of Biotechnology

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WRITING SAS DATATO EXTERNAL SOURCES
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Contact No:
Ph: 040-66621528
093910 05048

==============================================================================
TOPIC: MI5 Persecution: Battersea Library 29/3/99 (7607)
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/760557ca4af609a7?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Fri, Nov 16 2007 11:27 pm
From: MI5Victim@mi5.gov.uk

Battersea Library 29/3/99

Certainty level: 60%

This one is quite dull. During the month of March 1999, MI5 made another
determined attempt to "get" me, substantially through radio programmes,
through Jon Snow on Channel Four News, and through abuse in public, of
which this is one example.

Recorded on my minidisc-walkman on Monday 29 March 1999, this audio file
consists of two girls talking. One says to the other, "he's got something
wrong with him." The usual words. How many millions a year do the Security
Service waste on this? But they've denied it - how silly of me to forget.
And they're not liars either, are they?

7607

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==============================================================================
TOPIC: Anova with continuous variable
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/d44fa29a8fefa03a?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 2 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 5:02 am
From: Emmanuel Charpentier

junkjem@gmail.com a écrit :
> Hello,
> Lets take for example the following experiment (which is similar to
> mine but with some other variable...)
> Someone has to taste a meal is estimate how spicy it is.
> It is always the same meal, but the quantity of salt and pepper
> varies.
> In some conditions there is no pepper, in other there is the same
> amount of pepper and salt.
> The quantity of salt (and pepper) varied between condition, let's say
> 3, 5, 7, 9, and 11 mg.
> So to summarize here are the value of the independent variables:
>
> Cond Salt Pepper
> 1 3 0
> 2 5 0
> 3 7 0
> 4 9 0
> 5 3 3
> 6 5 5
> 7 7 7
> 8 9 9
> I have 6 estimations per conditions.
> I have done an anova with two factors: 1] quantity of salt, 2]
> presence of pepper.
> Of course both factor are significant. The purpose of the experiment
> is to test if the interaction is significant. We want to know if the
> increase in the spice estimate with the introduction of pepper is
> constant over the quantity of salt.
>
> I have done the anova using Matlab (function anovan). I have to option
> to set the quantity of the salt to a continuous variable. It seems
> intuitive to me to use this option. But the problem is that I don't
> know exactly of the algorithm used in that case.
> I understand the algorithm of a typical ANOVA, but I can't find any
> information on how to treat a continuous variable.

You're barking up the wrong tree : what you're tring to do is not but
regression.

Indeed, both are special cases of general linear models. I suggest to
look that up in a good intermediate-level textbook.

I wouldn't use the general-purpose Matlab for this kind of problems, but
a stattistical package such as R.

Furthermore, there are some general (psychophysiological) reasons to
question the linearity of the relationships you're trying to discover. A
nonlinear regression might be more appropriate...

HTH

Emmanuel Charpentier

== 2 of 2 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 7:31 am
From: Bruce Weaver

Emmanuel Charpentier wrote:
> junkjem@gmail.com a écrit :
>> Hello,
>> Lets take for example the following experiment (which is similar to
>> mine but with some other variable...)
>> Someone has to taste a meal is estimate how spicy it is.
>> It is always the same meal, but the quantity of salt and pepper
>> varies.
>> In some conditions there is no pepper, in other there is the same
>> amount of pepper and salt.
>> The quantity of salt (and pepper) varied between condition, let's say
>> 3, 5, 7, 9, and 11 mg.
>> So to summarize here are the value of the independent variables:
>>
>> Cond Salt Pepper
>> 1 3 0
>> 2 5 0
>> 3 7 0
>> 4 9 0
>> 5 3 3
>> 6 5 5
>> 7 7 7
>> 8 9 9
>> I have 6 estimations per conditions.
>> I have done an anova with two factors: 1] quantity of salt, 2]
>> presence of pepper.
>> Of course both factor are significant. The purpose of the experiment
>> is to test if the interaction is significant. We want to know if the
>> increase in the spice estimate with the introduction of pepper is
>> constant over the quantity of salt.
>>
>> I have done the anova using Matlab (function anovan). I have to option
>> to set the quantity of the salt to a continuous variable. It seems
>> intuitive to me to use this option. But the problem is that I don't
>> know exactly of the algorithm used in that case.
>> I understand the algorithm of a typical ANOVA, but I can't find any
>> information on how to treat a continuous variable.
>
> You're barking up the wrong tree : what you're tring to do is not but
> regression.

I think you mean it is "nothing but regression", perhaps?

>
> Indeed, both are special cases of general linear models. I suggest to
> look that up in a good intermediate-level textbook.
>
> I wouldn't use the general-purpose Matlab for this kind of problems, but
> a stattistical package such as R.
>
> Furthermore, there are some general (psychophysiological) reasons to
> question the linearity of the relationships you're trying to discover. A
> nonlinear regression might be more appropriate...
>
> HTH
>
> Emmanuel Charpentier

Emmanuel, if you are referring to what has sometimes been called
"polynomial" regression (e.g., inclusion of both X and X^2 to model a
quadratic relationship between X and Y), that is still linear regression
in the terminology I am familiar with. I.e., it is linear in the
coefficients, and uses the same equations as when the functional
relationship is linear.

--
Bruce Weaver
bweaver@lakeheadu.ca
www.angelfire.com/wv/bwhomedir
"When all else fails, RTFM."

==============================================================================
TOPIC: MI5 Persecution: Royal Festival Hall 15/4/99 (9782)
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/2bf5ecb1808b389b?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 1:29 am
From: MI5Victim@mi5.gov.uk

Royal Festival Hall 15/4/99

Certainty level: 100%

Another "day in the life of", this one. January and February were quiet;
in March it all started again; by the middle of April the resurgence of
abuse had been going on for over a month. And this, with 100% certainty,
is one manifestation of the abuse.

On Thursday 15 April 1999, 1pm lunchtime, I was at the booking office at
the Royal Festival Hall near Waterloo Station in London, buying a ticket
for a friend. A woman was at the counter next to me. She said;

"it would kill it, you know, it would just be overkill...
.. they can't stop can they"

It was obvious to everyone, the ticket agents included, that her comments
were directed at me, and that "they" (ie. MI5) were "killing" me.

I've heard similar things said at various other times, but rarely have their
intentions been expressed as clearly as this. The woman also expressed the
obsessive nature of MI5's preoccupation with me, by saying, "they can't
stop can they".

9782

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==============================================================================
TOPIC: Linear Model Problem
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/cbdae4ed0080ff7a?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 4 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 5:43 am
From: sonicb11

On Nov 15, 11:42 am, sonicb11 <williamp...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> I am working on a linear model problem.
>
> Here is the model:
>
> Wi = a*Zi + b*Zi*Xi + Zi*Ei
>
> Wi is the observed response. a and b are the regression
> coefficients. Zi follows a Beta distribution with parameters alpha and
> beta (they are both unknown). Xi is a predictor variable, and Ei is
> the error with mean zero and variance sigma^2.
>
> I need to estimate a, b, alpha, beta, and sigma^2 using method of
> moments. I want formulas for them. I've never seen a linear model like
> this before and have no idea how to tackle it. Any help or hints would
> be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.

Maybe using maximum likelihood, there is a solution? Either method. I
just need some solution to estimate the parameters.

== 2 of 4 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 5:43 pm
From: Richard Ulrich

On Thu, 15 Nov 2007 08:42:11 -0800 (PST), sonicb11
<williampepe@hotmail.com> wrote:

> I am working on a linear model problem.
>
> Here is the model:
>
> Wi = a*Zi + b*Zi*Xi + Zi*Ei

That's a meaningful model? That has Zi in each term.
Is there a typographical error here?

>
> Wi is the observed response. a and b are the regression
> coefficients. Zi follows a Beta distribution with parameters alpha and
> beta (they are both unknown). Xi is a predictor variable, and Ei is
> the error with mean zero and variance sigma^2.

Does the linear model care how Z is distributed?
That seems to be a separate question, if you care about it.

>
> I need to estimate a, b, alpha, beta, and sigma^2 using method of
> moments. I want formulas for them. I've never seen a linear model like
> this before and have no idea how to tackle it. Any help or hints would
> be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.

--
Rich Ulrich, wpilib@pitt.edu

http://www.pitt.edu/~wpilib/index.html

== 3 of 4 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 7:34 pm
From: sonicb11

On Nov 17, 8:43 pm, Richard Ulrich <Rich.Ulr...@comcast.net> wrote:
> On Thu, 15 Nov 2007 08:42:11 -0800 (PST), sonicb11
>
> <williamp...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> > I am working on a linear model problem.
>
> > Here is the model:
>
> > Wi = a*Zi + b*Zi*Xi + Zi*Ei
>
> That's a meaningful model? That has Zi in each term.
> Is there a typographical error here?
>
>
>
> > Wi is the observed response. a and b are the regression
> > coefficients. Zi follows a Beta distribution with parameters alpha and
> > beta (they are both unknown). Xi is a predictor variable, and Ei is
> > the error with mean zero and variance sigma^2.
>
> Does the linear model care how Z is distributed?
> That seems to be a separate question, if you care about it.
>
>
>
> > I need to estimate a, b, alpha, beta, and sigma^2 using method of
> > moments. I want formulas for them. I've never seen a linear model like
> > this before and have no idea how to tackle it. Any help or hints would
> > be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.
>
> --
> Rich Ulrich, wpi...@pitt.eduhttp://www.pitt.edu/~wpilib/index.html

Yes, it's a meaningful model. The Zi is there from a previous step,
which I haven't shown. The Zi follow a Beta distribution with unknown
parameters alpha and beta.

== 4 of 4 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 11:07 pm
From: "Anon."

sonicb11 wrote:
> On Nov 17, 8:43 pm, Richard Ulrich <Rich.Ulr...@comcast.net> wrote:
>> On Thu, 15 Nov 2007 08:42:11 -0800 (PST), sonicb11
>>
>> <williamp...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>>> I am working on a linear model problem.
>>> Here is the model:
>>> Wi = a*Zi + b*Zi*Xi + Zi*Ei
>> That's a meaningful model? That has Zi in each term.
>> Is there a typographical error here?
>>
>>
>>
>>> Wi is the observed response. a and b are the regression
>>> coefficients. Zi follows a Beta distribution with parameters alpha and
>>> beta (they are both unknown). Xi is a predictor variable, and Ei is
>>> the error with mean zero and variance sigma^2.
>> Does the linear model care how Z is distributed?
>> That seems to be a separate question, if you care about it.
>>
>>
>>
>>> I need to estimate a, b, alpha, beta, and sigma^2 using method of
>>> moments. I want formulas for them. I've never seen a linear model like
>>> this before and have no idea how to tackle it. Any help or hints would
>>> be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.
>> --
>> Rich Ulrich, wpi...@pitt.eduhttp://www.pitt.edu/~wpilib/index.html
>
> Yes, it's a meaningful model. The Zi is there from a previous step,
> which I haven't shown. The Zi follow a Beta distribution with unknown
> parameters alpha and beta.

But is Zi known?

It's not clear to me if Zi is even identifiable. If it is, you might
want to look at an EM algorithm, i.e. fit the standard linear model to
Wi/Zi for estimated values of Zi, then estimate the Zi's, given a and b.

Bob

--
Bob O'Hara
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
P.O. Box 68 (Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2b)
FIN-00014 University of Helsinki
Finland

Telephone: +358-9-191 51479
Mobile: +358 50 599 0540
Fax: +358-9-191 51400
WWW:

http://www.RNI.Helsinki.FI/~boh/
Blog: http://deepthoughtsandsilliness.blogspot.com/
Journal of Negative Results - EEB: www.jnr-eeb.org

==============================================================================
TOPIC: Order Statistics of Independent Normal Distribution.
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/36b5b17b3e01ddc4?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 6:00 am
From: zhangjy

you can refer
http://home.jesus.ox.ac.uk/~clifford/a5/chap2/node8.html
http://citeseer.ist.psu.edu/136609.html (download the paper)

On Nov 16, 6:41 pm, Wudong Liu <wudong....@gmail.com> wrote:
> Dear all:
> Now in a project of mine, I need to obtain the mean and std of extreme
> order statistics of independent normal distribution(not necessary
> standard). I know this should not be a hard job. Can anyone please
> give me a reference on this, where I can find some already derived
> equations.
>
> Thank you.
> Warren

==============================================================================
TOPIC: MI5 Persecution: Balham Bus 8/7/99 (11957)
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/e9510e671edf1f0c?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 3:01 am
From: MI5Victim@mi5.gov.uk

Balham - LT bus (8/July/1999)

Certainty level: 90%

I am very sure about this one. I got back from holidays on Wednesday.
There were two incidents, both on the tube, on the way back from the
airport. There was a further incident the following day, Thursday, on
the bus (the 155 I think) in Balham, where two girls started spouting
abuse about "crazy", etc. Naturally I had my minidisc with me and was
able to record their words.

The cynical reader might think my demeanour or behaviour had given rise
to the taunts of "crazy" recorded above. But I assure you my behaviour
on the bus would not have made anyone think I was ill; and the taunts
the previous day were the same sexual words as previously; so I'm quite
sure that these incidents are either deliberately staged, or indicative
of an overall high level of awareness among the London public,
particularly in the part of London where I live.

11957

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==============================================================================
TOPIC: MI5 Persecution: Clapham South 17/2/00 (14132)
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/4fda053b4856a01e?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 4:25 am
From: MI5Victim@mi5.gov.uk

Clapham South (17/Feb/2000)

Certainty level: 100%

In February 2000, MI5's hate campaign against me was in full swing. They
sent people into the road where I live in south London, to swear at me
and abuse me as I was leaving or returning home. One such instance is
recorded on the above audio file.

On Thursday 17 February 2000, I had just left my home, en route for Croydon,
when two youths approached, going in the other direction. One of them said
with a smile on his face something which I didn't recognize, and still
don't understand despite it being on this audio clip. His demeanour made it
clear his statement was directed at me. I coughed, and in response to that,
he continued his insult, calling me a "wanker", which is very clearly
recorded on this audio clip.

Two days later, in the very early morning of Sunday 20 February 2000,
MI5 inflicted another insult against me just outside my house, when,
returning from Croydon, two youths approached (MI5 agents always go in
packs of at least two - they're too cowardly to go anywhere on their own)
and one of them said quietly and bitterly to the other that "he's shitty,
very shitty".

It is still comparatively rare for MI5 to send people to my house, or to
my road, to harass me. Usually they know where I'm going to, since they have
bugs on my phone and in each room of my house; and they send people to
that location, or on the train or tube getting there.

14132

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==============================================================================
TOPIC: MI5 Persecution: Clapham Junction 6/5/00 (16307)
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/8977e3df157ede81?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 6:07 am
From: MI5Victim@mi5.gov.uk

Clapham Junction (6/May/2000)

Certainty level: 60%

On Saturday 6 May 2000, I was in Clapham Junction, shopping and visiting
the library. At precisely 12:29pm, the above audio clip was recorded,
in front of Arding and Hobbs department store. One girl was saying to
her friend,

"He's a homosexual, they can say whatever they want."

There are several reasons why I think this comment might be about me.
Firstly, temporal proximity to other such incidents. The persecution
had restarted about two to three days before this clip was recorded.
Cause of restart unknown. Personally I think it's because I was going
on holiday to France the following Monday - MI5 do like to take holidays
abroad at the taxpayer's expense, and inventing reasons to resurrect their
hate campaign just before I go on holiday is something they've done
before.

Secondly, although I am not gay, they have used such references against
me before. At Oxford Computer Group in 1994, manager Steve Mitchell
simultaneously abused me and another employee but saying we were "of a
similar bent". Such insults show latent or quite overt homosexuality
on the part of the abuser.

Thirdly, the sort of people who abuse on the basis of mental illness
are the same people who abuse others on the basis of sexuality, race,
religion, etc. If they can abuse a disabled man, then they will surely
do so based on the other criteria mentioned.

There is still some room for doubt, though, which is why I have assigned
this recording a certainty level of only slightly above evens. But "they
can say whatever they want" is what gives the game away; they just choose
a differentiating feature on which to base their abuse; and if one such
feature gets too boring ("we've called him a nutter for the last ten years
so now we'll call him something else") then they invent a different lie
to throw at me.

16307

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==============================================================================
TOPIC: MI5 Persecution: he's an idiot you know 3/11/00 (18482)
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/8a136add8f27ce41?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 7:49 am
From: MI5Victim@mi5.gov.uk

Balham High Road (3/Nov/2000)

Certainty level: 60%

On 3 November 2000, I had just got off the bus in Balham High Road,
when I heard a group of schoolgirls shouting and laughing. One of them yelled;

"He's an idiot you know."

You can hear this on the above clip; it is followed by laughter. I am
not quite sure this is about me, which is why I have only given it
a two in three probability. I have been attacked many times with the
word "idiot", which seems to be a favourite with intellectual lightweights
who want to bring down bigger game. (Back in 1992 I was so worried by the
attacks on my intelligence that I took the test and joined Mensa......
does that make me a *clever* idiot? Never mind.)

18482

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==============================================================================
TOPIC: MI5 Persecution: tinker tailor wanker thief 2/12/00 (20657)
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/510fe260a3f5c8df?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 10:42 am
From: MI5Victim@mi5.gov.uk

Crescent Grove, Clapham Common (2/Dec/2000)

Certainty level: 100%

This is one of those clips where I am absolutely, 100% certain it's
inflicted by MI5 on me, because of background, context. On Saturday
2 December 2000, I was walking from my home to a pub on Clapham Common,
and on the way was in proximity to a group of three English youths
who were walking the other way. They turned from the main road into a
private estate called Crescent Grove. Here is what they said;

(first youth) "He masturbates!"
(his mate responds) "Yeah, he masturbates!"
(and again) "Thief!"

There is a lot of context associated with this incident, which I will now
relate.

Firstly, the verbal sexual abuse is a popular one with MI5, and as a statement
about me is currently mostly in their imaginations. The accusation has to be seen
relative to MI5's persecutory actions in late November and early December 2000,
and in fact for some months leading up to this. Their relevant activities in
June 2000 are documented in a message in this evidence item;
following from that, they sent someone to simulate an act in front of my window,
which was captured on film.

It is the publication of the video of their agent performing the act on himself
which caused MI5 to restart this thread of harassment in the first few days of
December 2000. But there are some subtleties; I uploaded the digitised video
to this website on 26/November/2000; but I did not announce its existence on the
newsgroups until Sunday 3/December/2000. These youths' slur was made the previous
day, on Saturday 2/Dec. That tells us quite a lot. According to my website logs,
there were no accesses to the video file before Sunday 3/Dec. So why did MI5 restart
this particular thread of abuse, before their agent's activities were
published on the newsgroup? The conclusion we reach is that they were watching my
internet connection, either decoding the telephone line, or at the ISP; and/or they
may be able to physically see what is on my notebook computer's screen, from
RF transmissions from its VGA circuitry. I do not know whether the latter is
technically feasible, but the former certainly is, and I have known for years
that MI5 bugs my internet activities and phone calls. It is from their observation
of my internet connection that they were able to tell, without accessing the
video file over the net, that it was of their agent in a compromising position;
and it was from that observation that their shouted slur on 2/Dec emanates.

The second accusation, "Thief!", is even more interesting. It relates to occurrences
from June of 2000, some six months before these youths threw the word at me. It shows
just how wide in reach geographically and temporally the MI5 persecution is;
they react to something which happened half a year previously.

In the first half of 2000, MI5 made a determined assault on my friendships. In one
particular case, that of A. whom I had known for virtually all my life, they partly
succeeded. This person made pointed references to me which made it clear he knew
what was happening; at one point he started asking "do you know anything about the
FBI and the CIA". In June 2000, we went to see a film in the West End. I paid for
both of us, and then asked him to return what I had paid for his ticket, some £7.50.
He was reluctant to do so. Eventually he returned £5, settling for the lesser gain of £2.50.

I did not call him a thief to his face, but I may have spoken the word while I was
at home, either conscious or in my sleep. MI5 have very tight control over everything
I do and say in my home through their bugs; if I say anything against someone in
"their" camp, they turn round the accusation against me. So, from the fact that A.
tried to garner a few pounds at my expense, MI5 create the accusation, six months
later..... "thief!".

20657

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==============================================================================
TOPIC: LINK TO CASELLA'S STAT. INF.
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/a72e54ebd4016e7d?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 2 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 3:04 pm
From: Robert Shearer

Dead link.

== 2 of 2 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 3:01 pm
From: Robert Shearer

Dr. Doofus,

Would you please send me a copy of the solution manual for Casella & Berger's Statistical Inference, 2nd Edition. I greatly appreciate the help.

Rob

==============================================================================
TOPIC: MI5 Persecution: Jon Holmes (4-5/Jan/2002) (22832)
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/0bb5ce4f21547dfb?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 1:07 pm
From: MI5Victim@mi5.gov.uk

Virgin Radio-Jon Holmes (4-5/Jan/2002)

Here are two segments from Virgin FM, one on Friday, the other on Saturday,
both from the Jon Holmes evening show.

Certainty level: 80%

In early January 2002 I listened for the first time in some months to Virgin Radio,
specifically to the Jon Holmes evening show on Friday 4 January 2002. They promptly
attacked me verbally. Again, context is relevant. There are three instances in the
space of two minutes on this extract;

00:18 "are you lying?"
00:22 "it's not fair"
01:24 "everyone at the amateur c+ turbo programmers club found it hilarious"

The first phrase is a straight slander. MI5 were trying to portray me as a liar at
around this time; I have other audio with the same accusation. "are you lying?"; unsophisticated.

It's closely followed by the words "it's not fair". Note carefully the way he says it,
quickly, as if to deny what he says. The phrase "not fair" was first created by OCTS MD
H S.-W. in Nov/1992, and picked up on my first visit to hospital soon after
"they should have paid your fare").
Again, unsophisticated parrotting of a key phrase.

The third phrase is explicable through contemporaneous context. That morning I had
phoned about a C++ course. "c+ turbo programmers club"... again, somewhat brazen
we're-listening-to-what-he-says-on-the-phone, and he-can't-prove-it. Something got lost
in translation from MI5's watchers to Virgin, because "c+ turbo" means nothing.... there
is no C+ turbo language, only C++, of which Turbo C++ is one implementation.

Certainty level: 80%

I wasn't entirely convinced from Friday's programme, but the following evening's
show confirmed it. It contained a number of references to my condition, of which the
following excerpt is one such;

00:09 "I'm not well, and no-one cares"
00:24 "my voice sounds all funny"
01:01 "do you mean people that aren't mad"
01:05 "medical problem is it"

"I'm not well" doesn't mean he has a cold; it means he is being sarcastic about my
mental illness. "my voice sounds all funny" refers to the change in nature of my
voice when acute illness hits. "do you mean people that aren't mad" is obvious.
"medical problem is it"..... rubbing salt into the wound.

22832

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==============================================================================
TOPIC: wrong R-Squared value??
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/259e11ac412a3219?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 5:55 pm
From: Richard Ulrich

On Fri, 16 Nov 2007 09:03:30 EST, jantunes <jasantunes@gmail.com>
wrote:

> > > This is what I do:
> > > 1) get 200 data points (x is a time series; y is
> > > CPU usage)
> > > 2) do linear regression based on those 200 points,
> > > resulting in some y'=a + bx
> > > 3) get R-squared (R^2=0.96) for the y'
> >
> > At this point -- Are you doing anything to get rid of
> > "spurious" correlations based on simple trends, etc.?
> No. I'm sorry but I don't even know what that is.
>
> > OLS regression may give useful results, in some
> > sense, but it won't give legitimate tests, and values
> > such as R-squared might be approximately useless,
> > even when they are as big as 0.96, if the whole thing
> > represents a simple trend.
> What do you mean by a simple trend?

Ooh. You really need to read some basics.
You could Google groups <group:sci.stat.* spurious > .

For a time series, the obvious spurious correlations involve
simple linear trends in separate variables. Or cycles.
If two variables separately have a similar trend, they will
have a positive correlation.

If Sequence-number correlates with your raw data, you
have a potential problem.

>
> > > Then, I want to validate that trendline/prediction
> > > by comparing it with more real data:
> > > 4) get more data points, past the 200 points
> > > (eg 10000)
> >
> > Wow! I though only astronomers used 50 times the
> > baseline for projections. What *is* this problem,
> > anyway?
> I'm trying to predict the resource usage for a given computer task (x = number of times the taks is repeated). So, I get a different y and y' (prediction) for a different type of resource (CPU, memory, etc).

This *sounds* like a matter of bench marking. For that,
the "time series" aspect should be incidental and irrelevant.
Each separate "experiment" should give the same results
regardless of when it is run. Is there *any* sort of proper
carry-over between experiments?

One really onerous way that these data could resemble a time
series is if you recorded the x and y as cumulative counters,
and never subtracted in order to find the data for the separate
experiments.

That would create a strong correlation that is "spurious"
and essentially useless.

Why is there any carry-over between experiments?

[snip, rest]

--
Rich Ulrich, wpilib@pitt.edu

http://www.pitt.edu/~wpilib/index.html

==============================================================================
TOPIC: MI5 Persecution: Post Office 14/11/02 (25007)
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/d4f553024603f4fa?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 4:06 pm
From: MI5Victim@mi5.gov.uk

Balham Hill Post Office (14/Nov/2002)

Certainty level: 80%

By mid-November 2002 the persecution had again dwindled, as happens sometimes, when along came this item.
I spent most of my time at home, going occasionally to the shops in Clapham South, or into town to meet people. On this particular
Thursday I only left the house once, for less than fifteen minutes to post a letter (special delivery, because my ordinary and
recorded delivery letters had been disappearing en route for some time - not that anyone would accuse MI5 of such petty harassment).
At the post office counter there was an Asian guy talking into his mobile phone and grinning away. There is a probability that
his comments were directed at me, as I will explain further. The second segment of audio closely follows the first segment.

"you'll do it today? let's meet about 3 o'clock and have some lunch. I got stuff to do and I'll go to the bank,
get this sh.. fucking moving yeah. Even just a little bit do something. He doesn't understand, you know what it is,
I don't want to tell him again cause then he might, he thinks we're having a go at him, I'm not having a go at him,
I'm explain to him"

Explanation: The guy is talking about some bloke who is unnamed, however it might be interpreted as being in code about me.
"I'll go to the bank"... variously interpretable, either literally, or as sounds-like "wank" which has been a consistent
theme in MI5's abuse. "get this shit fucking moving"... abuse... could be interpreted as MI5's criticism of my inertness.
The state spends hundreds of thousands of pounds a year - they want to see some result, not just neutrality and ordinariness.
"he doesn't understand"... MI5 claim I'm stupid... but the numbers and bits of paper prove otherwise, so perhaps what that
is really about is their agents' subconscious perception of themselves.

"having a go at him"... sounds like they're having a go at me, doesn't it? You might take the audio at face value and assume
it's about some other guy, but it's normal MI5 procedure to pretend to be talking about someone else, and make the content of
the message very relevant to me, or their perception of me.

"for some reason it doesn't get into his head, I don't know why... he's lost it completely, hasn't he"

What reason is there for it not getting into his (my) head? Stupidity is implied. Also implied is that it does get into his head;
we're intentionally causing him damage. He's lost it completely... for some time I have suffered from OCD... lost it completely
is the persecutors' observation of my illness, which they see through the surveillance on my home, which they caused.

25007

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==============================================================================
TOPIC: MI5 Persecution: Eclipse pub 20/12/02 (27182)
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/086f2caf456842be?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 6:35 pm
From: MI5Victim@mi5.gov.uk

Eclipse pub in Balham (20/Dec/2002)

Certainty level: 70%

On Friday 20/December/2002 I went to Balham to do some shopping and eating. When I went into the Eclipse pub for a meal
there were two girls already at the bar being server, I ordered and sat down near the window. They sat down at the opposite
window seat, out of sight. After a few minutes they started screaming repetitively "section, section". They were reading
something and were trying to pretend that they were just repeating from what they were reading, but in reality it was quite
obvious they were talking about me, specifically to confinement under mental health.

As you can guess the behaviour of these unwise young things shows them to be from the underprivileged category which due to
the natural laws of society is seldom seen in the better classes of restaurant - the McDonald's next door is their more
usual habitat. My guess is that these two females were deliberately placed in the Eclipse with orders to be offensive to
me personally. The alternative would be that no-one had ordered them and they were just being rude on their own account,
but that is improbable, for two reasons; first, I was out of sight of them and one does not usually "pick on" a person
one cannot see; secondly, there had that afternoon in Balham been other, less distinct incidents immediately preceding this,
and it is inferable that MI5 were making quite a serious effort to create a physical incident, as they have done on
numerous occasions previously. I give my interpretation a two in three chance of validity.

27182

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==============================================================================
TOPIC: Mutual information
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/browse_thread/thread/433572f7d89f7c5e?hl=en
==============================================================================

== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Nov 17 2007 11:04 pm
From: Robert

Hi,
I have a question on mutual information.

Given four random variables, X1, X2, X3, and W,

It is known that X1 and X3 are conditionally independent given X2, i.e., I(X1;X3|X2)=0, where I represents the mutual information.

I want to prove

I(W;X3|X2)=I(W;X3|X1,X2)

Thanks in advanced !

Robert

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